Larian Studios
Im well aware Larian haven't announced it so please spare me any sarcasm,

I just want to see when the community thinks the full release date will be?

Thanks
July 18 2022, 10h PST.
As late as possible.

I'd rather
(a) not have Larian run short of money and find themselves forced to ship the game, and
(b) that Larian takes the time to address the numerous issues the current version has, many of which are with very basic things (UI, controls, etc) which have nothing to do with vision.
The second point is a matter of will, which will be what it will be, so let's hope they don't find themselves forced to ship to pay bills and salaries.
Probably sometime in 2022.
I would be happy if they released it in fall of 2021.
But more realistically, spring 2022. I hope they are working on the plot, and not changing all mechanics and style only because small group of people don't like it.
I'm kinda worried that they've already spent 4 years and all we have is one chapter, 4 levels, no multiclass and almost no companions.
It doesn't look good given there was a whopping 3 month gap between patch 3 and patch 4. No idea about the release date but considering this abysmal update rate its definitely not going to be in 2021.
Jan 10 2023

As others have said, as late as possible. The game has so many issues to fix -- Droth Malorn's list is a good start -- and it would be sad if it got it rushed to the end. So far I see no signs of rushing so I'm voting for "when it's done"
I'm pretty happy with where it is at, especially with a pandemic over Christmas. OK. I kinda hate the nautiloid, and lots of the up to the grove. But only because it took me ages to accept that if you have a Tav you have a Tav and you don't need to recreate your character to get the name or the voice you want and so run through the beginning again smile

They are listening to feedback, and making changes. Maybe not all the changes, but not everyone agrees anyway. There will be a lot of things held back for the final release, and I would expect most of early access to focus on mechanical find tuning, both the engine and the 5e flavour. Also AI. Some of the monster tactics have gotten sneaky. There is probably enough content to test that. There probably needs to be a bit of drip fed content to keep enough interest up to keep on testing. Then there is the 80:20 rule or more likely 90:10 the last 10 percent takes 90 percent of your resources.

All that said, I think they could release something complete in a year to 18 months. They might be able to release something by the end if this year, and they have picked up staff, but that sort of timeline might put unnecessary pressure on the team and leave things feeling rushed. But a lot of it will depend on choices about what to include and what to leave for later, both in terms of story and features.
I'm definitely hoping for something like a Q3 or Q4 2022 release because this game has a lot of issues. It has a lot of great stuff too, hence why I feel invested in it. But don't Game of Thrones me, man. Don't show me a great start and fail to stick the landing. Then I'll hate it more than if it just always sucked.
We have no idea how far along they are in house. They could very easily have all the classes done; Multi classing, higher level spells etc. As this is EA why would they release all of this at once, better to do a few things at a time to get feedback and make changes and then tease us with more smile

That said I agree, late 2021 at the earliest and more likely spring/summer 2022.
I really hope it won't be anytime this year. A lot of cheese grinding is needed to make this anything remotely like a classic.
Originally Posted by Thespen
We have no idea how far along they are in house.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure, and it would make sense, that Larian has way more done than a part of Act 1
Originally Posted by eLeF
It doesn't look good given there was a whopping 3 month gap between patch 3 and patch 4. No idea about the release date but considering this abysmal update rate its definitely not going to be in 2021.
If I recall correctly, only a small percentage of Larian's team was working on EA, about 10%, while the rest forge ahead and work on act 2 and beyond. And it was, I believe, a 2 month gap. (Patch 3 launched December, Patch 4 launched February.)
Originally Posted by Gt27mustang
Originally Posted by Thespen
We have no idea how far along they are in house.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure, and it would make sense, that Larian has way more done than a part of Act 1
If we expect them to integrate our suggestions, I don't think that matters much. A lot of what people are identifying are pretty fundamental issues.
Originally Posted by DuskHorseman
Originally Posted by eLeF
It doesn't look good given there was a whopping 3 month gap between patch 3 and patch 4. No idea about the release date but considering this abysmal update rate its definitely not going to be in 2021.
If I recall correctly, only a small percentage of Larian's team was working on EA, about 10%, while the rest forge ahead and work on act 2 and beyond. And it was, I believe, a 2 month gap. (Patch 3 launched December, Patch 4 launched February.)

Yeah but this patch was pretty small given the wait time. COVID is screwing up everything for everyone. We got some bug fixes, a small amount of new content and one core class. If this game is going to be a successor to Baldur's Gate 2 it's going to about 2 years from now. A Sept release would guarantee that it would become another "play it and forget it" game.
Autumn or Christmas 2022 for my money. Before that I'd have concerns; not because I don't like the EA but because I've been waiting 25 years for this...
Originally Posted by KillerRabbit
Originally Posted by DuskHorseman
Originally Posted by eLeF
It doesn't look good given there was a whopping 3 month gap between patch 3 and patch 4. No idea about the release date but considering this abysmal update rate its definitely not going to be in 2021.
If I recall correctly, only a small percentage of Larian's team was working on EA, about 10%, while the rest forge ahead and work on act 2 and beyond. And it was, I believe, a 2 month gap. (Patch 3 launched December, Patch 4 launched February.)

Yeah but this patch was pretty small given the wait time. COVID is screwing up everything for everyone. We got some bug fixes, a small amount of new content and one core class. If this game is going to be a successor to Baldur's Gate 2 it's going to about 2 years from now. A Sept release would guarantee that it would become another "play it and forget it" game.
It was actually pretty significant. They re-worked a lot of story beats and recorded a bunch of voice lines (the Nettie scene, Astarion's intro, companions butt in FAR more often now). And September is not going to be the release date. 2022 looks likely, imo.
probably late 2022
Originally Posted by Ankou
Originally Posted by Gt27mustang
Originally Posted by Thespen
We have no idea how far along they are in house.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure, and it would make sense, that Larian has way more done than a part of Act 1
If we expect them to integrate our suggestions, I don't think that matters much. A lot of what people are identifying are pretty fundamental issues.

Most of the things that are complained about seem to be generic simple issues related to 5e rules ( like changing a few numbers used in formulae, or switching on/off features ). They may be fundamental issues for those that complain, but they are not particularly heavy on development time.

The things that take real time are art assets, environmental design, acting/voicing, animation, pathing the story, scripting cutscenes and adding the "physical" in-game manifestations ( mainly involving vfx and animation ) of as yet unimplemented rules/setting content.

I have no idea whether Larian will "fix" any of those fundamental issues ( I suspect some will be, not all ), but they will have almost no impact on the release timescale. Without current;y having even the full extent of Act 1 or PHB content available, it is difficult to judge how long the game will be in EA, but unless Larian are really sandbagging, it won't release until 2022 or later.
Originally Posted by DuskHorseman
Originally Posted by KillerRabbit
Originally Posted by DuskHorseman
Originally Posted by eLeF
It doesn't look good given there was a whopping 3 month gap between patch 3 and patch 4. No idea about the release date but considering this abysmal update rate its definitely not going to be in 2021.
If I recall correctly, only a small percentage of Larian's team was working on EA, about 10%, while the rest forge ahead and work on act 2 and beyond. And it was, I believe, a 2 month gap. (Patch 3 launched December, Patch 4 launched February.)

Yeah but this patch was pretty small given the wait time. COVID is screwing up everything for everyone. We got some bug fixes, a small amount of new content and one core class. If this game is going to be a successor to Baldur's Gate 2 it's going to about 2 years from now. A Sept release would guarantee that it would become another "play it and forget it" game.
It was actually pretty significant. They re-worked a lot of story beats and recorded a bunch of voice lines (the Nettie scene, Astarion's intro, companions butt in FAR more often now). And September is not going to be the release date. 2022 looks likely, imo.

Yes, as there are so many different story threads, depending on how you play, it is difficult to even know if something has changed, or you simply didn't encounter it before. I just noticed that the Owlbear cave seem to have been reworked, for example.

Patience is required, but it seems to be in short supply.
March 2022, with a DC version in June of 2023.
Launch: Oct 6, 2020
Patch 2: Oct 27, 2020 (3 weeks after Patch 1=Launch)
-- Bug fixes & cinematic tweaks, "75% of you stood with Tieflings...Good outweighs evil." Nothing significant in this patch.
Patch 3: Dec 2, 2020 (5 weeks after Patch 2, 8 weeks since launch)
-- Pacifism, companion behavior, party auto-jump, 2 short rests, rebalanced cantrips.
Patch 4: Feb 25, 2020 (12 weeks after Patch 3, 20 weeks since launch)
--Druid Class, loaded dice, target portraits, various dialogue and story changes

Going forward
We need the 5 remaining classes: Barbarian, Bard, Monk, Paladin, Sorcerer. These classes should be easier than the Druid, so let's estimate ~8 weeks each. 5x8=40 weeks
We might be getting the remainder of Act 1. Let's say this patch, on its own, will add 15 weeks.
We need the 2-4(?) remaining companions. These can probably be released as patches between and/or with the above patches.
Let's be a bit generous and add another 10 weeks for extra miscellaneous stuff to be added, another 10 weeks for final testing and polishing, and then another 10 weeks for delays due to flooding.

40+15+10+10+10=85 weeks from Feb 25
Release: October 13, 2022
Total Time in EA: slightly over 2 years
Originally Posted by Ankou
Originally Posted by Gt27mustang
Originally Posted by Thespen
We have no idea how far along they are in house.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure, and it would make sense, that Larian has way more done than a part of Act 1
If we expect them to integrate our suggestions, I don't think that matters much. A lot of what people are identifying are pretty fundamental issues.

I personally don't expect them to integrate ANY suggestions besides maybe some mechanic tweaks that are from the forum. I am fine with that. Personally I am expecting maybe Q1 2022 or Q4 2021. This is not a BETA release, this is Early Access, which means they probably have the majority of stuff baked in and now it is simply fine tuning, and research bug reports from players for different hardware/OS conflicts, framerate for different cards etc. They are probably on the last chapters now so I am expecting a little less, or a little over a year.
Hopefully 2022. Maybe even 2023. They need to spend the time to make this truly a dnd 5e game.
Anyone thinking full release is in 2021 is asking for a really bug-filled time. There is no way this is happening before Spring 2022.

(And add a few weeks for every time one of their offices gets flooded.)
You guys are crazy , Sven from Larian has said it will be in EA for atleast a year or more, It will be release either late this year or early next year.

They have 300 people working on it across 5 studios. That costs alot of money they will have targets set for release date.

Dos 2 was in early access for 1 year remember so i am expecting similar with BG3
Originally Posted by teclis23
You guys are crazy , Sven from Larian has said it will be in EA for atleast a year or more, It will be release either late this year or early next year.

They have 300 people working on it across 5 studios. That costs alot of money they will have targets set for release date.

Dos 2 was in early access for 1 year remember so i am expecting similar with BG3
I admire the optimism, and late this year (december-ish) would be amazing. But that's probably the absolute earliest. Spring-summer next year seems more likely to me.
Originally Posted by Danielbda
I'm kinda worried that they've already spent 4 years and all we have is one chapter, 4 levels, no multiclass and almost no companions.

Datamining has shown that there is a lot of code in BG3 from chapter 2 and probably also chapter 3. They have managed to find a lot what's supposed to happen when the party gets to Baldur's Gate.

I believe Larian Studios has the entire story created already at a higher level. Early Access is used to iron out bugs in the game mechanisms and getting feedback on what works and doesn't work. This way they can adapt without having to rewrite too much of their code. Once they feel the mechanisms are working and the players like the design then they can finish the parts of the game we haven't seen yet.

It's pretty obvious they can't put too much game story into early access. This doesn't mean chapter 2 and chapter 3 with quests etc. haven't been developed. You just can't access these.

Right now I think they're working hard on adding more companions, classes, races and so on. The druid was released in the last patch and I expect us to see a new race / class every 3rd month or so until the game is finished. The mechanisms for all classes are probably already coded so it's more about fleshing out the new classes with graphics etc. E. g. datamining has been able to find code for smite evil that will be used by paladins.

So I think BG 3 is in a more advanced state than one could think after just playing the early access. Remember that Larian Studios have used early access before for DOS 1+2. It usually takes a bit over 1 year from release of EA until the final version is released. For BG3 I expect a bit longer time because the game is bigger. So a final release time in the Summer of 2022 is definitely realistic. It could be as late as before Christmas 2022. Personally I don't think they will be able to release the game before Christmas 2021, but I would be pleasantly surprised if they do.
My guess is late 2022.
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