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#805918 18/01/22 10:50 PM
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Hello BG community and developers. Is there any realistic timeline for completion for this game? It has loads of potential but appears to be progressing at glacial pace.

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"Appears", yes. But we don't actually know much at all about the progression, so, perhaps it's moving ahead extremely fast.

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Originally Posted by Baldrick
Hello BG community and developers. Is there any realistic timeline for completion for this game? It has loads of potential but appears to be progressing at glacial pace.

Realistically I would say best case scenario Q1 or Q2 of 2023. Worst case scenario Q4 of 2023.


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Last time someone at Larian (Swen Vincke, specifically) talked explicitly about this the wording was "We are REALLY TRYING to release before 2022 [ends]".

Given that in the entire history of software development being "on schedule" and matching the original prediction almost never happens and being early would border the miracle, I'd be incline to echo early 2023 as a more likely scenario.


Party control in Baldur's Gate 3 is a complete mess that begs to be addressed. SAY NO TO THE TOILET CHAIN
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Well, he told GameSpot he was looking for a release in 2022 back in June. Take that for what it's worth.

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Originally Posted by Tuco
Last time someone at Larian (Swen Vincke, specifically) talked explicitly about this the wording was "We are REALLY TRYING to release before 2022 [ends]".

Given that in the entire history of software development being "on schedule" and matching the original prediction almost never happens and being early would border the miracle, I'd be incline to echo early 2023 as a more likely scenario.

Their official trailer is 2.3mill views, they havent even started marketting yet. I wouldnt trust nothing what Swen says, numbers speaks more. 2.3mills is exactly what it says "announcement". I say 3+ 2024.


Last edited by GreatWarrioX; 22/01/22 07:18 AM.
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I have no idea what you are even trying to say and how it relates to what I posted.


Party control in Baldur's Gate 3 is a complete mess that begs to be addressed. SAY NO TO THE TOILET CHAIN
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The way I see it is as follows. The game needs to be released in either in 2022, which is what they are shooting for, or the first half of 2023. If they fail to deliver that, it won't matter what the fanbois think, the company will have lost faith with many of their new customers. Yeah, they will likely keep most of their previous followers, though they will lose some of those as well (don't bother to chime in about what a good fanboi you are, no one cares).

They sold far more units of this game then they expected, and if they can deliver the game they promised, this studio will be certain to rise, but if they fail, those customers, the new ones, will be very hard to win back. Larian won't be ruined, but they will find it hard to find another sponsor like WotC, and they will find it difficult to expand their customer base, because they will have failed to deliver a product with iconic status that they assured their customers (and sponsor) they could deliver.

Now, if they can deliver in the reasonable amount of time stated above, this will appease many of those who bought the product. Some will of course hate it, some will adore it, most will be satisfied even if it isn't everything they wanted it to be because it was finished. As long as it is playable and not riddled with bugs, Larian will walk away with a happy sponsor, and content customers.

They could still salvage their reputation among their new customers by publishing after that, but they will see diminishing returns on the customer satisfaction as more time passes. They are on the clock regardless of whether they talk to their base or not, but the clock runs faster the quieter they are. If they talked to their customers and established a rapport, then they could extend this time, but even here on their own forums they are quiet as mice. So they aren't going to be able to get away with what RSI and other publishers who are involved with their fans can get away with. The clock is ticking.

Last edited by Dustmen; 23/01/22 08:55 AM.
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Originally Posted by Tuco
Last time someone at Larian (Swen Vincke, specifically) talked explicitly about this the wording was "We are REALLY TRYING to release before 2022 [ends]".

Given that in the entire history of software development being "on schedule" and matching the original prediction almost never happens and being early would border the miracle, I'd be incline to echo early 2023 as a more likely scenario.
The last quote I remember is "we'll be happy if BG3 releases in 2022" which is even less promising than ^. Swen doesn't expect it to release in 2022; I expect ~Q3 2023.

Originally Posted by Dustmen
The way I see it is as follows. The game needs to be released in either in 2022, which is what they are shooting for, or the first half of 2023. If they fail to deliver that, it won't matter what the fanbois think, the company will have lost faith with many of their new customers. Yeah, they will likely keep most of their previous followers, though they will lose some of those as well (don't bother to chime in about what a good fanboi you are, no one cares).
You might hold this opinion, but that doesn't mean that "many of their new customers" think like this. Some will be happy to wait however long for a good BG3 game, and others will have already lost faith. After all, BG3 has already spent over a year in EA, with relatively infrequent content updates or continued hype. At this point I would argue that it doesn't really matter how long BG3 takes to release (within reason), as long as the release itself is both advertised well and is a fun game.

Personally, I'd much prefer a later release with a better game than a somewhat rushed release for 2022/early 2023. If Larian chooses an early release with a mediocre game (which I consider the current version of EA to be, with all its frustrating and/or missing aspects) I'll be very disappointed.

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I'd love to see the rest of the mysterious fortress around the resurrection celebration aka Easter bunny holiday IF not earlier, then another half a year for part 2. Or around mid october 2022 a year after the first part of the duergar fortress was opened up to players. Part 3 yet to come after that? Part 4? Hahha!

But it would make some sense, 2nd being a bit more wilderness and the tower. 3rd Baldurs gate, dungeons, miniature planes, many buildings and towers and more.

Then there are DLC.. which work beautifully in the format of say a adamantium dollhouse with a mordenkainens mansion, version bigger, dimensionally squeezed inside it. Or a island of Crabpeople (those are friendly) the pirates however are not, and the caves with a lost kuotoan city has pirate treasures, mutants and worse.
Even a grand quest into the lower planes, lorokans tower may hold a gateway...

All in all, no need to expand the map as such, the dlc areas can work on separate maps.

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Hey everyone,

Here is some history/background from someone that's covered Larian in a former life in games journalism starting in the Divine Divinity 1 & 2 OG days...

Over the past two "modern Divinity" releases, their turnaround from Greelight release to full release has been 1-2 years.

This always happens: they release a big chunk of a teaser, then pretty much go radio silent... providing updates for the "teaser demo" and maybe occasional check ins every 4-6 months, but no real acknowledgement of full release timing until it is "ready."

Following that timeline, BG2 was originally released on Greenlight (if I remember) back in October 2020.
On the 2-year timeline, we may see something as early as Q3 of this year.
Keeping in mind the impact of COVID, I can see this maybe at the latest being pushed to a Q1/Q2 2023 release.

If development on this hasn't been impacted by COVID, seeing it by Q4 of this year isn't unrealistic.

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The full collapse of human civilization is slated to occur between 2040 and 2050 - so as long as they release by around 2030 we should have plenty of time to play before the end.

I wish you all good fortune in the wars to come.


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Originally Posted by Blackheifer
The full collapse of human civilization is slated to occur between 2040 and 2050
Is that when humanity is expected to retract to their basemenets and gradually die off, due to StarCitizen coming out and fulfilling everyones dreams?

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If Civilization ends due to an AI superintelligence, then hopefully the AI will allow its human pets to play video games.

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Originally Posted by Dustmen
They sold far more units of this game then they expected, and if they can deliver the game they promised, this studio will be certain to rise, but if they fail, those customers, the new ones, will be very hard to win back. Larian won't be ruined, but they will find it hard to find another sponsor like WotC, and they will find it difficult to expand their customer base, because they will have failed to deliver a product with iconic status that they assured their customers (and sponsor) they could deliver.
The way I see it, there are actually 2 questions here:

  • 1. How long it will take? This one is pretty simple, and affects, well, everyone.
  • 2. Which direction will be taken? Or, what the final product will look like?


If Larian will persist in following Mr. Wincke's vision and create what could essentially be called D:OS reskin, a DnD game which isn't really DnD, with barrelmancy fun, surfaces fun, know-it-all wizards fun and classless classes fun, then I sincerely hope people will realise that Larian is a one-trick pony, and as such should "stick to the chicken". They can make a Herculean effort and release a well-polished game quickly, but for me (and I hope some others, too) it doesn't really matter how bug-free the product is, if I don't like it.

Personally, I will wait and see until release. Thankfully, GOG has a very generous refund policy, which allows to request a refund during the entire EA period and within the first month after full release, no matter how long the game was in EA. Wincke said he isn't going to bow to other's rules, and is going to make the game his way. Well, neither do I.

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Originally Posted by mrfuji3
Originally Posted by Dustmen
The way I see it is as follows. The game needs to be released in either in 2022, which is what they are shooting for, or the first half of 2023. If they fail to deliver that, it won't matter what the fanbois think, the company will have lost faith with many of their new customers. Yeah, they will likely keep most of their previous followers, though they will lose some of those as well (don't bother to chime in about what a good fanboi you are, no one cares).
You might hold this opinion, but that doesn't mean that "many of their new customers" think like this. Some will be happy to wait however long for a good BG3 game, and others will have already lost faith. After all, BG3 has already spent over a year in EA, with relatively infrequent content updates or continued hype. At this point I would argue that it doesn't really matter how long BG3 takes to release (within reason), as long as the release itself is both advertised well and is a fun game.

Personally, I'd much prefer a later release with a better game than a somewhat rushed release for 2022/early 2023. If Larian chooses an early release with a mediocre game (which I consider the current version of EA to be, with all its frustrating and/or missing aspects) I'll be very disappointed.

Larian appears to have doubled their customer base with this product. 500,000 new customers minimum who may have little to no experience with this company are waiting on a product that they paid for. It doesn't matter to them if people nitpick about when it was promised, because they are still waiting. Like I said, it won't break Larian if they take 3 or 4 years to finish the game, but I believe it will destroy the trust of many of those 500,000 new customers. Those customers will be less likely to trust Larian products in the future, and will be sure to avoid any entry they put forth in EA. DoS2 sold about 500,000 copies, BG3 is already over a mil. If even half the new customers decide that Larian is less then reputable it can't help but hurt the future of the company in this market. You may believe that customers with no previous experience with this company will be happy to wait however long, but that isn't how you gain the trust of new customers. You're correct in assuming that they have already lost the trust of some, but the number isn't going to get smaller the longer it takes. If I was running a gaming studio, I wouldn't shrug off that many future customers for the sake of art. I would just be concerned that the game was stable and playable with a minimum of bugs, that the Acts were complete and balanced, and that it would avoid the problems that plagued CP2077.

I understand your concern about a rushed release, and I'd hope that this won't be the case. The game has been in production since as early as 2016. It may have been later than that, but no later than 2018. It is being built around a
pre-existing engine, and was ready for EA in 2020. Larian has reputedly never been shy about updating features after release, so even if everything isn't perfect, as long as it is mostly bug free, people will be able to enjoy it. Right now all those new customers are stuck in Act 1 with no signs of moving forward.

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Larian EA for DOS and DOS2 also ended at act 1. That's how Larian rolls. I'm 99% sure we won't see act 2 until release.

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This is the first game from Larian that I have bought, and I have no problem with the game coming out in 2023 if needed. I prefer them to release the game when it is ready rather than rushing it out.

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Right, I agree. first half of 2023 won't cause them much attrition, beyond that people will start to be less and less reasonable. Even the later half of 2023 would be fine if Larian gave a date for full release around the second half of 2023. If they keep everyone in the dark until release day and don't release it until the last minute in 2023 then you will likely get a few months of people getting really disgruntled. A 2024 release date however, will likely cost them.

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Originally Posted by Blackheifer
The full collapse of human civilization is slated to occur between 2040 and 2050 - so as long as they release by around 2030 we should have plenty of time to play before the end.

I wish you all good fortune in the wars to come.
LOL!! My timeline for this is MUCH closer.

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