Damn, my early release date estimate was almost an entire year off. My estimated release date (based on Patch 1-4 schedule) as of March 2021: October 2022
But my later estimate made in July 2022 did suggest August 2023
as an optimistic release date. And it's common these days for games to be delayed a bit, so fall/winder 2023 is still possible. Though obviously I'd be much happier if a (complete, non-buggy) BG3 was released in August!