Larian Studios Forums Baldur's Gate III Baldur's Gate III - General BG3 potential sales and what this means for D&D and CRPGS

So when BG3 hit early access the media announced that Larian sold 1 plus million copies instantly. Currently there is no data for current sales almost 1 year after EA release.

I have been checking the steam charts on a regular basis and i can confirm BG3 was in the top 10 for a very long period of time after EA and then in the top 20 for a very long very period of time and has only just recently dropped out of the top 20.

I think it would be safe to assume Larian has sold probably 2 million copies plus already. Easily. Possibly more.

So when full release finally happens i think a conservative estimate of sales then would probably be another 5 million plus copies.

This is an incredible achievement and accomplishment from Larian. They have achieved this due to there built up fan base from DOS2 and then tapping into the D&D IP.

Moving forward what does this mean for the future of D&D and CRPGS? This is uncharted territory and potentially game changing.

Please provide you thoughts on this i really want to hear what you guys have to say.

I'm just wondering what the ratio of players is. I am not a D&D purist by any means and think changes should be made to a video game. But I don't like what Larian have changed from 5e. Mainly the combat mechanics and a bit too much tongue in cheek attitude for Forgotten Realms. I feel like there's a thin line between love it or hate it for me still. I did not enjoy DOS and Larian seem to have difficulty letting go of their own IP and style of their previous games. What will happen if they stray too far from D&D expectations? It's a long legacy of games I would absolutely hate to turn into divinity. That would impact the sales of a potential BG4 more though if they manage to alienate the fans of D&D and the original IE games and NWN etc. Based on patch 5 they are on the right track though but with a long way to go.

I too hope they stick to true D&D instead of DOS2 rules mate. Lets hope they move consistently in that direction i think it has far more potential.

Sorry, don't buy this claim at all. I don't see EA sales being 2 million right now. Furthermore, and more importantly, I see the EA sales as NOT being the tip of the sales iceberg and rather as the BULK of sales for the game. In other words, people who like this game have already bought it in EA, and there are not that many people left out there who will be buying it after it comes out of EA. I see total sales at no more than 5 million max, under the best of circumstances, which is what DA:O sold, so not at all an impressive showing for a AAA game.

What?! I did not buy BG3 instantly when it hit Early Access though some time after that I did buy BG3. I did not buy during the week they sold over 1 million from Steam alone. I bought from GOG.com.

Well my brother has said he will buy this game but he will not to that before full release date which I guess is October-December 2022 or January-December 2023 is my best guess.

That is because my brother has other games that he plays and generally he has neve been interested in ALPHA or BETA plays.

Well then I have addition to my brother (my brother is not poor) one "poor" friend (well poor compared to me) he owns no real estate no house, apartment or summer cottage while I am landlord though not saying I am rich like 1 million euro net value+, but still good economy I can give my poor friend in this rare case pay 50% of his cost to buy BG3 at full release example 30 euro out of 60 euro. Well and I very rarely give presents to my "poor" friend. Well not poor in that way that he does not have money for food and a budget gaming desktop computer.

Kani... you are again with your own view of what is impressive sales.
5 million would be very impressive sales.

Now one thing that could affect a lot sales afterwards if they will go and sale for consoles Playstation and XBOX after PC version is done.
I will not try estimate sales though find it difficult, but 100% sure that it will exceed DOS2 sales.

I think 2 millions so far is a good estimate based on the steam spy and a few more from GOG and Stadia.

5 millions is probably the estimate Larian has for the final release including console sales as well.

But depends on how appealing the final game will be. If it gets RPG of the year and some good reception from the media it may reach ~7-8 millions. I would expect it to sell more than DOS2 given it is more appealing due to graphics/cutscenes...

I think there are differences between AAA games and sales. Other than the Witcher 3 and maybe the newer FFVII role-playing games still don't sell as well as shooters like Call of Duty. I think the three Mass Effect games sold a little more than 10 million copies for all 3 games. So anything close to 5 million would be a success I imagine.

Dragon age inquisition has sold more than each of the mass effect games confirmed by bioware so there is definitely a big market for fantasy RPGs.

From Googling I found that it sold around 6 million. That's total including PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One, and PC. 6 million isn't bad though.

People who think the bulk of sales are already past us may be in for a surprise.

For context DOS 2 sales were estimated in the 100-200k range at best during EA and it ended up selling roughly a million in first month of release. And way more in the following ones.

The level of brand visibility, I think, is incomparable between Larian and BG (or D&D in general).

SteamSpy puts the BG3 sales estimate into 2-5 million range: https://steamspy.com/app/1086940
I think it's safe to approximate the number as 3 million. And that is just Steam alone - there's also GOG, and then there's Stadia. So yeah, I tend to agree with Veilburner that 6M might be a close estimate of the total sales.

I don't think they will be able to quintuple that number after release, like you say they did with DOS 2. The market simply isn't that big. I suspect they have already exhausted most of its capacity by now. They might sell about the same amount after release, but that's it.

However, in order to have these post-release sales, the game has to be both majestic and flawless. Considering the amount of copies already sold, the word about any issues will spread quickly. There are comparatively few players who are acquainted to the LTC mechanic (DOS fanbase), and the majority of users would expect a game they can call both "familiar" and "intuitive". Whether Larian will be able to deliver on these fronts... we'll have to wait and see I suppose.

Completely anecdotal and therefore not relevant.

It is confirmed that DA:I has sold over 10 million, and ME3 very close behind. Also confirmed that DA:O has sold over 5 million. And of these games only DA:I comes close to being a AAA game.

Not accurate context at all. (A) With D:OS2 Larian was still an unknown quantity for many people, so it makes sense people would wait. Now this is no longer true. And (B) This being a D&D game makes it fundamentally different from D:OS2 in terms of people's responses. People already know D&D, and if you're a fan of D&D, and you've been dying for a D&D videogame for a long while, and you see "Baldur's Gate 3" in Steam or GOG, you're going to jump on it right away. If anything, it is all of the buyer's remorse that I am seeing in this forum and other forums that is most relevant here and interesting to me.

I think Larian would be lucky to get 5 million in sales. And this may be achievable PURELY because of the D&D and BG name recognition, which is to say not because the game is good or Larian's reputation but rather because a lot of gamers are desperate for a D&D/BG videogame no matter what. But for me, for a AAA game with a huge budget and close to a thousand people working on it, 5 million in sales would be rather paltry.

I didn't argue the specifics nor I suggested that the ratio would be exactly the same this time.
I gave other numbers for context and they were absolutely accurate.

https://gamerant.com/highest-selling-games-developed-bioware-ranked-how-much-sold/

not sure how accurate this is but I was going off of that.

DA:I has sold 6 million. Mass Effect 2 has sold 5 million. And Mass Effect 3 has sold 7 million.

Oh and I'm not doubting you, kanisatha. But can you show me where it's been confirmed that DA:I has sold 10 million? Haven't found anything about that.

BG1 and 2 selling 3.5 millions each is surprising, it seems inflated.

Yeah those numbers do seem inflated or fishy.

Found another link saying DA:I has sold 6 million copies.


https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Electronic_Arts

Most numbers are malleable, so you can probably justifiably predict whatever you want for sales.

The most important determinant of how well the game sells will probably be how broad the appeal of the game is when taken at "face value".

Players that already know/like D:OS, D&D, or the original BG games are an easier target, so long as BG3 goes at least some way towards meeting those players' needs.

But, there is a much larger potential player base that likes fantasy games, but prefer fast-paced action rather than the more deliberate-pace of typical cRPGs ( For example, Neverwinter MMO is aimed squarely at a portion of that wider market and has been quite successful ).

I think the game, when it finally appears, will be adored by some players and vilified by others, but probably review well in the mainstream press unless Larian get completely tied in knots trying to appeal to everyone. Sales in the 5-10 Million range wouldn't surprise me, but beyond 10 Million would.

Obviously, the sales into the non-D&D/cRPG audience provide a potential for expanding the DnD/cRPG fan-base, but I wouldn't expect a huge cross-over, as most other cRPG games simply don't achieve the BG3 production values.

I wonder if the co op / multiplayer component will be an additional draw too for attracting newbs the genre. I always think of these games as single player rpgs. ButI already know some folks who are not fantasy or dnd fans who got the early access just for something fun to do with their pals.

Also disappointment with hyped rpgs like CP77 and MEA might lead some folks to try a AAA crpg…

Your 5 million is probably a fairly good guess. However unlike you I would be satisfied with 5 millions sales. Well and we don't know. It could be 3 or 10 millions. My short real life story was the point that many people will buy at full release or later. Budget is not everything. Best example of that would be Starzitizen MMO roughly 350 million dollar budget and budget rise more and more while graphics are good the rest is not ok what they have done certainly not due to how many years in development and budget. My guess Squadron 42 single player part of Starzitizen maybe will be released within 10 years, but the full Starzitizen MMO after n decades or never. Crowdfunding began 2012 still continue fund getting and some kind of production before that it has alread began pre 2012 well so a decade of Starzitizen MMO development and they have very little results to show and also bugs. I have not paid for Starzitizen, but I know people who have paid that are very unhappy. Well and then there is Ashes of Creation MMO that has high budget and I maybe start playing it when full release perhaps in 2023-2024, but that MMO shows very positive signs in development. I played World of Warcraft MMO for over 3 years and many ex WOW MMO and Final Fantasy MMO developers have been hired for Ashes of Creation MMO development.

I dont see why I could not play both BG3 and Ashes of Creation?
BG3 offer sinple player or cooperative play to maximum 4 players. BG3 is only PvE and not PvP.
You can play BG3 fully turn based and pause it any time.
Movie like story effects,

Ashas of Creation.
Sub fee monthly not one time buy.
This is a MMO you can not pause combat and it is not turnbased combat.
While there is lots of PvE in Ashes of Creation one of its strongest selling points is the PvP which will have lots of Pvp. You can not play AOC and believe you
can completely avoid PvP in the long run. AOC will have many forms of PvP and also to such scale that has never done before 250 players vs 250 players and this on Unreal 4 graphics engine.

BG3 takes care of my PVE fun though can be played cooperative up to maximum 4 players or single player game. Ashes of Creation takes care of my fantasy PvP fun and it is MMO.

This was actually something I read very recently. It was an article talking about a recent Bioware business meeting/conference call where they confirmed that DA:I was Bioware's all-time highest selling game. And since they also had a confirmed number from Bioware of ME3 sales of over 9 million, they concluded that DA:I sales should be around 10 million, which is to say something higher than ME3's 9+ million.