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RtM #534892 02/08/14 07:16 AM
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Is it for real? DOS #1 again on Steam. Sacred 3 is a real shame and insult to the original fans.

Last edited by Archaven; 02/08/14 07:16 AM.
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Originally Posted by LordCrash
Originally Posted by henryv
concurrent players on D:OS:
http://steamgraph.net/index.php?action=graph&appid=230230

Its probably estimated though. Highest I saw was 22k of players as compared to the highest on the graph which is 21k.


Even better stats: http://steamcharts.com/app/230230

Almost 20k people play D:OS at the same time at the weekends. That't pretty stable since release, although overall player numbers are slowly going down which is quite natural.


That's a good graph if you're only checking on one game though. I checked the active users of skyrim and this game the month after D:OS' release with my previous graph. It's the same trend although the numbers are smaller in comparison for D:OS. At least this means that the game have hit the mainstream. The question now is how will Larian take advantage of this or to avoid the down sloping of the trend. I'm thinking more updates, but the silence because of their holiday is a worry.

EDIT:
http://steamgraph.net/index.php?act...;from=1404104400000&to=1406955600000

Skyrim is still going strong due to mods and the community. Hopefully, Larian will take care of the community. I know they will but the silence is just making me anxious.

Last edited by henryv; 02/08/14 09:04 AM.

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RtM #534986 02/08/14 10:49 AM
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See told you so. All the fluff gone and now DOS is back at no 1. Right where it should be. smile

I reckon there has been a surge in sales due to all the sacred 3 refunders switching to DOS.

Last edited by Col Whatmecallit; 02/08/14 10:51 AM.

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RtM #535175 02/08/14 12:55 PM
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Awesome!

RtM #535483 02/08/14 04:56 PM
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Happy to see D:OS is number one again! laugh

RtM #535497 02/08/14 05:07 PM
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Lol I've talked to some really angry people regarding Sacred 3

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Originally Posted by henryv
The question now is how will Larian take advantage of this or to avoid the down sloping of the trend. I'm thinking more updates, but the silence because of their holiday is a worry.


Larian already (inofficially) announced that the second big patch with additional companions will arrive this month. As far as I know most Larian staff should be back to work tomorrow so I guess we'll hear from them very soon...

I think Larian don't have to do much as long as D:OS is in the top 5 or even top 10 on Steam. If it loses a top 10 rank they should probably do a Weekend sale or something.

And in the long run a fully fleshed out expansion would be great of course! smile

Last edited by LordCrash; 03/08/14 01:04 AM.

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Originally Posted by LordCrash

And in the long run a fully fleshed out expansion would be great of course! smile

Yep, no DLC bullcrap, we want a fully fleshed out expansion! smile

RtM #535738 03/08/14 01:45 AM
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Let these guys enjoy their (well deserved) holliday!

Grats on the 1st place, together with DS 2 by far the best game relesed this year and probably the best rpg in years. Funny thing: i played Baldurs Gate 2 before and rpg-wise D:OS doesnt feel like a backstep in comparison xD

I totally missed the Sacred 3 incident, lost interest at this game after reading some of the design choices... wtf happened there, but a nice comparison to D:OS where nearly everything was done right ;-)


Last edited by Turbo Torsten; 03/08/14 01:45 AM.
RtM #535777 03/08/14 03:28 AM
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The problem with Sacred 3 is clearly a consolized mess. Although DOS has been consistently staying on Steam #1, i think the numbers now wouldn't be that great but i'm hopeful. This will be a different story when on sales.

Legend of Grimrock sold 600K units the last i heard. But that game cost is much lesser of course.

Last edited by Archaven; 03/08/14 03:29 AM.
RtM #535796 03/08/14 04:30 AM
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We know that DayZ sold about a million in the 3 months after its release (that is, excluding the first month which had the 'release spike' effect). It had a similar (though still better) profile of steam sales ranking over time. That should set the expectations - about 300k a month or 10k a day is probably an upper bound that is not too far off. So I'd guess about 400k steam sales (inc. EA) and another 150k from retail and GOG.

RtM #548604 28/08/14 11:00 AM
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So after all the discount campaigns and new releases, Divinity fell out of the top 10, which usually means there's a massive drop-off in sales...

...usually, anyway, because today it's back on the front page at number 10.

Has there been any official numbers released yet? This must be a crazy success for Larian, surely? Hopefully it will enable them to patch it to perfection and also lots of lovely expansions! smile


EDIT: I didn't want to submit just in case it was there temporarily, but it climbed to number 9 now...

RtM #548688 28/08/14 05:32 PM
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So, I geeked out and made the following estimates...

According to Steam Charts, in the last 30 days DOS has been played about 5.3 million hours on steam.

Assuming the ratio of peak players and hours played is constant, I extrapolated this backwards:
1. The area under the 'peak players' graph was 340k players x days for the last 30 days.
2. Thus, the ratio of hours played over that area is 5.3 Mil hours / 340 players*days = 15.6 kHrs / player-days
3. Applying this backward to the previous 30 days, we have another 496k player-days, so if we take the above ratio, that's another 496*15.8kHrs or 7.7 Mil hours.
4. Total hours played then would then be about 13 Million hours so far. Let's say this is with ï½±15% error because (a) the above method is rather crude (b) Steam sometimes under-reports hours played.

Now, I've also estimated the average number played per player to be between 15-20 hours. The estimate is based on:
1. Ars Technica's Steam Gauge data (has a rough pie-chart breakdown of average playtime on Steam)
2. Steam achievement percentages coupled with my estimates on how long it takes to reach each one. In particular:
- 44.6% have not found the Pyramids teleporters - this usually occurs in the first few hours of play, so these players are probably disinterested. Assumed 1.5 hrs played on average in this bracket.
- 26.1% found the pyramids, but haven't killed Evelyn yet. That means they've at least played a few hours, but probably not over 25. I assumed an average of 10 hrs for this bracket.
- 15.6% killed Evelyn, but haven't met the conduit yet. Probably played more than 8 hours and no more than 60. I assumed an average of 30 hours on this bracket.
- 5.3% have met the conduit, but haven't reached hunter's edge yet. That's at least 20 hours in, but no more than 120. I assumed 45 hours on average.
- 3.9% have arrived at Hunter's edge, but not at the Source Temple. Yadda yadda assumed 60 hours.
- 1.1% have reached Source Temple, but haven't beat the game. Assumed 75 hours. This piece of data is also backed by Larian saying it's an 80 hour game and also reports on this site.
- The rest (3.4%) have beat the game, at least once. Assumed 120 hours on average.

This adds up to 17.6 hours on average. I've thus used the range 15-20 hrs per player (i.e. about 17.5 ?ï½± 15%), which is roughly what you'd get if you slapped a 40% error margin on each individual bracket estimate and assumed they are independent error factors.

Assuming the two error factors are uncorrelated, all this roughly translates to about 750k ?ï½± 20%, or between 600-900k. Which is not far off from my previous post too, if you account for the month that has passed since smile

So, was I close Larian?

It's also a good time to announce since the sales rate must be dropping by now...

Last edited by Cattletech; 28/08/14 05:53 PM.
RtM #548701 28/08/14 07:54 PM
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Yup, they dropped like a stone to 22 now. Whoops.

I guess the previous break back into the top 10 was temporary, and here's where the massive drop off starts.

(Although they're still in top 10 at GoG.com, but that site has a fraction of the customers that Steam has.)

Last edited by eobet; 28/08/14 07:55 PM.
RtM #548716 28/08/14 10:13 PM
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Comparing Divinity made by a small studio with behemoth like Skyrim is already a success for Larian IMO.
Game they made is really enjoyable. Atleast i have only enjoyed as much when i was playing Fallout 2, Fallout new vegas and X-com (yes, i consider Skyrim a bit inferior to D:os, because it was oversimplified).
And i think D:os will be still bought for a long time like any other good game.
They just need to finish expansion in time to get more attentoion on steam once more.


RtM #548725 28/08/14 11:47 PM
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A kickstarter game from a small studio with a small budget stays in the top ten for two full months, much of the time at #1, is pretty amazing imo. Many AAA titles with a much higher budget would be happy to stay up that long. Boxed Version seems to be sold out in many online shops. Also, depending on the modding tools and community, and maybe official DLC&expansions, it might even get back up...

Last edited by pts; 28/08/14 11:52 PM.
RtM #548857 29/08/14 04:18 PM
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There are lot of sales on in steam at the moment which have pushed our beloved D:OS off the first page. You can tell you have to take the steam positions with a pinch of salt as I do laugh when pre-orders appear as a top seller. yeah right, like I'm convinced its nothing to do with them pushing a new product. Besides D:OS has been at the top long enough to blow all those AAA titles right out of the water. Bring on the expansions.


Don't you just hate it when you forget where you parked the dragon.
RtM #548987 30/08/14 10:24 AM
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It's normal as the game has aged the sales will drop. Perhaps will see a surge when winter sales. But i'm really surprised Dayz is still best selling after so long? Perhaps the game is constantly evolving and contents are progressively added.

Divinity Original Sins could be a one hit wonder. If Larian can reproduce the same quality and the same attention from journalists/press on their "next" game, then Larian will change. It's no doubt they will be contacted by giant corporates who want to partner with them.

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Originally Posted by eobet
Yup, they dropped like a stone to 22 now. Whoops.

Just noticed, if you remove preorders and sales, Divinity:Original Sin is still at #5 right now (#7 if you allow preorders).

Last edited by pts; 30/08/14 11:16 AM.
RtM #549009 30/08/14 03:36 PM
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All going as planned imo, once they patch it to a level they feel it's super sweet, then you'll get the sale and then those coming in in droves will have even a better experience and word of mouth kicks in again, almost like a second release. You have to think more than 1/2 of Steam buyers today only buy a game once it hits a fairly heavy sales point. This game has many key price points in it's future, the big one's being $20 (version 2.0) and $10 (version 3.0). Falling out of the top 10 at this point is imo understandable, the big deal now is the sale, which should be sometime this fall.

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