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I've seen many a thread both here and on the Steam forum with people complaining about having incredibly bad luck with dice rolls (missing repeatedly when the tooltip says 90% chance to hit, etc.) I think I have discovered where the actual problem lies though. In my opinion it's in the tooltips themselves.

In my current game, I decided to kill Kagha just because she is a raging b#tch and deserves it. I am fighting her right now as I type this after dispatching all her minions. I attacked with Lae'zel with her long sword. The tooltip said I had 84% chance to hit but I whiffed. My party is running out of spells, a couple of them are low health and I have no more heal pots. I kind of needed a hit there badly so I pull up the combat log and take a peek and see this:

Kagha's Armour Class: 14
Attack Roll: 8 (1d20, Advantage) + 2 (Proficiency) + 3 (Strength Modifier) = 13


A near miss, but still a miss. Let's take a closer look at those numbers though. The numbers clearly indicate I would have scored a hit on a 9 or better, as I missed (barely) with an 8. Obviously anything less than 8 would also result in a miss. Now I wasn't a math major but I know that 8/20=.40 and .40 = 40%. That means I never had an 84% chance to hit at all, it was only a 60% chance. That puts things in a completely different light. Missing with a 60% chance to hit doesn't feel like nearly as bad a beat as missing on an 84% chance. 60% is pretty close to 50/50. Hell, my luck is bad enough that I'd expect to miss on a 60% chance.

The tooltips are giving us bad intel and I think that is a big part of why people are complaining about getting so many bad beat rolls. This is bad and needs to be fixed asap. Those tooltips are the only information we have to make decisions on prior to the resolution of the roll. They need to refect the actual chances of success.

Last edited by Osprey39; 12/10/20 09:51 PM.
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Originally Posted by Osprey39
I've seen many a thread both here and on the Steam forum with people complaining about having incredibly bad luck with dice rolls (missing repeatedly when the tooltip says 90% chance to hit, etc.) I think I have discovered where the actual problem lies though. In my opinion it's in the tooltips themselves.

In my current game, I decided to kill Kagha just because she is a raging b#tch and deserves it. I am fighting her right now as I type this after dispatching all her minions. I attacked with Lae'zel with her long sword. The tooltip said I had 84% chance to hit but I whiffed. My party is running out of spells, a couple of them are low health and I have no more heal pots. I kind of needed a hit there badly so I pull up the combat log and take a peek and see this:

Kagha's Armour Class: 14
Attack Roll: 8 (1d20, Advantage) + 2 (Proficiency) + 3 (Strength Modifier) = 13


A near miss, but still a miss. Let's take a closer look at those numbers though. The numbers clearly indicate I would have scored a hit on a 9 or better, as I missed (barely) with an 8. Obviously anything less than 8 would also result in a miss. Now I wasn't a math major but I know that 8/20=.40 and .40 = 40%. That means I never had an 84% chance to hit at all, it was only a 60% chance. That puts things in a completely different light. Missing with a 60% chance to hit doesn't feel like nearly as bad a beat as missing on an 84% chance. 60% is pretty close to 50/50. Hell, my luck is bad enough that I'd expect to miss on a 60% chance.

The tooltips are giving us bad intel and I think that is a big part of why people are complaining about getting so many bad beat rolls. This is bad and needs to be fixed asap. Those tooltips are the only information we have to make decisions on prior to the resolution of the roll. They need to refect the actual chances of success.


Yes the tooltips should be fixed. But I also feel the mechanics are too punishing. Especially if the game is played on normal. I have 17 charisma and proficient in persuasion and my rolls fail more than half the time. I've rolled a 1 multiple times. Qualitatively its not fun to play when the mechanics are so punishing with better than average stats. They maybe trying to be true to tabletop D&D math but for the average non D&D gamer like myself looking for a fun RP game to play this is not rewarding nor fun.

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You had advantage, as stated in the log. Advantage means you get the chance to roll twice (and take the better roll), so the percentages are adjusted accordingly.

You needed to roll a 9 with advantage, which is a 84% chance.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/12/dnd-5e-advantage-disadvantage-probability/

If I were Larian I'd include an entertaining tutorial in the full, but that's not up to me. smile

Last edited by Sven_; 12/10/20 10:32 PM.
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What Sven_ said.

While it might go counter to what Larian is trying to do, I would like an option to see what I need to roll, over the percentage. Just count for me all modifiers and show me number I am trying to roll, like they do in skill checks.

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Originally Posted by Sven_
You had advantage, as stated in the log. Advantage means you get the chance to roll twice (and take the better roll), so the percentages are adjusted accordingly.

You needed to roll a 9 with advantage, which is a 84% chance.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/12/dnd-5e-advantage-disadvantage-probability/

If I were Larian I'd include an entertaining tutorial in the full, but that's not up to me. smile


Fair enough. I will confess to not being totally up to date on D&D rules post 2nd edition so I was not even aware that was what advantage meant. If that's the case, they should show both rolls in the log then so people can see that. How hard could that be to implement?

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I would prefer if i could just turn off the % to hit in general. If I don't know an enemies armour class then why would i know my chance to hit? If i DO know their AC then I should know my bonuses enough to be able to figure out what I need to roll.

The log should have listed both of your attack rolls though.

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Originally Posted by Matey
I would prefer if i could just turn off the % to hit in general. If I don't know an enemies armour class then why would i know my chance to hit? If i DO know their AC then I should know my bonuses enough to be able to figure out what I need to roll.

The log should have listed both of your attack rolls though.


This! I actually think the % take me out of the immersion and additionally give me info I should not have. Like when I hover over them with a to-hit spell, I can get the AC, and then take a Kon-SavingThrow spell to check their KOn etc. I would prefer to be able to turn the % off.

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[Linked Image]

As you see in RAW numbers - it can't even count normally

they said to me, that:
Quote
4 < 3


And DC 10 - 2 - 3 = 3 ("5" is not displayed, but "3")
btw 1d4 from cantrip rolls automatically and before main roll - this is so lame...

So I think they makes too sophisticated rolls code - and it rolls very "specificly"

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Originally Posted by Sven_
You had advantage, as stated in the log. Advantage means you get the chance to roll twice (and take the better roll), so the percentages are adjusted accordingly.

You needed to roll a 9 with advantage, which is a 84% chance.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2014/07/12/dnd-5e-advantage-disadvantage-probability/


This.

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I think the main problem is people don't trust that the game isn't cheating. (it's like when the GM makes rolls behind their screen. No matter what, a tiny part of you thinks they are just making shit up... sometimes even when the rolls come out in your favor) So the answer is simple.. Blue tooth dice! They should add some sort of option to use blue tooth dice for every roll. Then people couldn't blame the game... but they could still blame the dice or the table they are rolling on or the cat or the devil or whatever else they want to blame their lousy rolls on. :P

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So am I just imagining my 95% hit chance failing more often than not? I am quite confused right now...

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I wish we could see the dice rolls made by other players. This would add SO much to the experience!

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Originally Posted by Hoarfrost
So am I just imagining my 95% hit chance failing more often than not? I am quite confused right now...



You never played a Fire Emblem game have you ? smile

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I just rolled 5 1s in a row...

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Originally Posted by Sharet
I just rolled 5 1s in a row...

Well done. If nothing else you have at least made me feel a bit less unlucky.

That probably didn't really help. evil


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Originally Posted by Sharet
I just rolled 5 1s in a row...


That reminds me of something... (33:10)


Last edited by Stabbey; 13/10/20 11:15 PM.
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Why are rolls simplified to display as only the dice roll on screen? I would suggest the dice roll be shown, then modifiers be also shown, and then =x... all on screen.

Also, If I have +x to whatever how can the roll be equal to or even less than that number? It actually seems to be affecting the saving dc of the creature I am attacking or target of the skill check, instead of adding to my roll. If that's the case, then that would go a long way to explaining the weird results and many failed attempts.

I mean, I'm open to learning that I am wrong, what am I missing here?

Last edited by LarsMarco; 14/10/20 12:36 AM.

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