You haven't factored chance-to-hit into your calculations or bonuses from str/dex, which do have an effect when combined. Let's assume str/dex +3 and 75% chance to hit.
2H Greataxe for 1d12+3 -> Expected damage of (6.5+3)*0.75=7.125 (using greataxe because you find it earlier than greatsword)
If you have GWM, your 75% chance to hit turns into a 50% chance -> (1d12+3+10)*0.5=9.75 expected damage
Currently, the game is calculating the off-hand chance to hit and damage incorrectly
1st hand = (1d6+3)*0.75 = 4.875
2nd hand = (1d6+3)*0.6 = 3.9
Total expected damage= 8.775 (using shortswords because the 2d4 sickles are rare/you get them late)
If the game calculated it correctly:
1st hand = (1d6+3)*0.75 = 4.875
2nd hand = (1d6)*0.75 = 2.625
Total expected damage= 7.5
So yes, dual-wielding seems to be better. BUT, when the rules are implemented correctly,
you are trading an entire bonus action for ~0.4 (5%) more damage.Once you get GWM, 2H'ing is better.
Once you get extra attack at level 5 (fighter, ranger, barbarian, paladin), 2H will quickly outscale dual-wielding. (greataxe without GWM will deal (1d12+3)*0.75*2=14.25 expected damage per turn)
Once you can get multiple weapon attacks (level 5 and beyond) 2h really outshines dual wielding because you only ever get the single offhand attack.
Thief gets two.
It's unclear how this will work when (if) Larian fixes off-hand attacks. 5e rules only allow off-hand attacks when you make a main-hand weapon attack, so in this case a thief would still only get 1 off-hand attack.