Something seems to have changed as my Sleight of Hand proficient, Thieves Tools proficient, 17 DEX Rogue failed the locked Chapel door three times in a row, three times in a row.
It's possible they just tweaked the DC of the door to be harder and we'd not know due to hidden values, but the multiple logs for a single check smell fishy to me...
Same here, playing as a high Dex MC Rogue. I was surprised not to get through that door on the third attempt, but I knew from previous playthroughs I could get in another way, thought it was just bad rolls.
On the other hand, I've opened several locked chests and doors without any unusual failure runs, so I think they could have made that particular door harder. Maybe to encourage exploring other ways into that building? There are at least two, maybe three ways in besides that door.