How does a 1st or 2nd level character ever get a 95% hit chance in the first place? I am used to the older to-hit-AC0 (THAC0) tables, but the probabilities should be about the same in 5e. A 1st level fighter's base score hits a monster with a modest +4 armor class on a roll of 17 - 20 out of 20. That's 4 possible rolls out of 20, or a 20% chance. Throw in a couple bonuses OK, but there is no way this character should ever get a 95% hit probability. That's why that first wolf in BG was so tough to beat!
Your calculation is a bit weird. A level 1 fighter would have +2 to attack from proficiency, then let's say he/she has +2 in strength. It makes a +4 bonus on attack roll. If he/she tries to hit a AC 14 monstrer, he/she would need a 10+ on a dice roll, which is a 55% chance to hit. If you count any advantage, which is calculated with probabilities in bg3 and not by throwing 2 dice, the fighter would need to roll even smaller numbers and so would have higher chances to hit.
