The 55% ones are unbuffed Shadowheart and my equally unbuffed main attacking the bugbears melee. The 56% one is Lae'zel on disadvantage range attacking a goblin.
I was getting exceptionally unlucky for the first 50 rolls with a couple bad streaks. At that point, only a third of all attacks hit, when you'd expect half of them plus to hit. Did 250 rolls total, maybe I'll make this an even longer term project to see how this goes. My pet theory is: What happened in the first 50 rolls is exactly what some people wouldn't want to happen (and what a pseudo-RNG would avoid). I wouldn't want pseudo, personally.
55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 55% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 56% miss 55% miss 55% miss 55% hit 55% miss 55% hit 56% hit 55% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 55% hit 56% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 55% hit ----> first 50: 17 hits, only 34% hits 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 56% hit 56% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 56% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 56% hit 55% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56%dw miss 55% hit 55% miss 55% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit ---> 43 hits of first 100: only 43% hits 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 55% hit 56% hit 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 56% hit 55% miss 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 56% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 56% miss 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 55% hit 55% miss ----> 71 hits of 150, still only 47,33% hits 56% miss 55% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 55% miss 55% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% miss 55% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 55% hit 56% hit 56% hit 97 of 200 hits ->> still only 48,5% hits 55% hit 56% miss 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 56% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit 56% hit 56% hit 56% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% miss 55% miss 55% hit 55% miss 55% hit 55% miss 56% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 55% hit 56% miss 55% hit 55% hit ----> 128 hits of 250= 51,2 %
TOTAL ROLLS: 250 TOTAL HITS: 128 TOTAL HIT RATIO: 51.2% EXPECTED: 55.x%
LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT A HIT: 8 LONGEST STREAK WITHOUT A MISS: 7
