I'm absolutely not a GM and I'm not a D&D tabletop player but I try to understand things. Let me know if I'm wrong.
I'll consider a character level 3 with a basic 1D8 weapon (average damage 4), an attack roll modifier of +3, a proficiency bonus to weapon +2. D&D Goblins : 15 AC with shield / 7 HP Modifier + Proficiency = 5 Dice roll needed : 10 (50%) Hit to kill : 2
Average attack to hit and kill : 4 Total turn to kill one goblin : 1
Larian's Goblin : 10 AC with shield / 12 HP Modifier + Proficiency = 5 Dice roll needed : 5 (75%) Hit to kill : 3
Average attack to hit and kill : 4 Total turn to kill one goblin : 1
It looks like actually it changes absolutely nothing about goblins. So what's the point of changing these stats except you see "75%" instead of "50%" ?
Wouldn't it be easier to stick a little bit more to the rules, and just add an additionnal +1, +2 or even +3 bonus to the attack roll if you're higher instead of an advantage (+1 means +5% chance of hit, +2 means +10%, +3 means +15%). Or maybe just decrease the AC but not changing the HP so combats are faster ?
Except total HP makes a difference in the effectiveness of various spells like sleep. The bigger point being made by HP bloat isn't actually time to kill but all the ripple effects and subsequent changes to other systems that have to happen but upset the balance of how these mechanics should be translated to the game.
