Unless this is communicated to the player through gameplay I see no point in pretending there is a bigger picture we are just not seeing. The player knows ingame that the Absolute is a sham and its forces are presented as weak and newly emerging, no sudden massive increase in power on the Absolute's part is going to convince me otherwise. It's like the Absolute is the new cool villain on the block that is going to overtake all the gods (the goblins disavowed Maglubiyet, Minthara possibly disoved Lolth) but none of the NPC's who are not already aligned with the Absolute take it seriously. The NPC's that are already with the Absolute are over the top zealots who hate you for telling them their True Souls are tadpoled.
Not to mention that even if what you say is true, I don't see why siding with Minthara is the same as siding with the Absolute as a whole. If that were the case, surely the goblins would not betray you. Helping the Absolute feels like being its thankless errand boy right now, everyone else already on board with it is in an established position in the Absolute's forces and would kill a newcomer like you on a dime. Nobody tries to sell you the side of the Absolute other than the being itself through those dreams, and it is unclear right now how much agency the Illithid tadpole has in this. What we do know however is that we are infected, for some reason nobody else on the Absolute's side knows this. What if you go through with the evil path and the Absolute just extracts your now incredibly powerful tadpole, then kills you?
You might want to take into account the absolute zealots have been 'infected' by the parasite through a ritual apparently.
So it could also mean the absolute is just a puppet of the illithids and they are the ones providing her with the tadpoles. And so, she's just a pawn in their scheme and the player has got the baby first hand from them instead, which created a sort of schism between two factions which in fact are one and only.