Do you think Larian measured all the data on a sheet with all of these steps in mind? If they did, why didn't they say so? "X% of players took this and this path..." with all the permutations outlined?

You know, even if we take those permutations into account, all of the dialogue choices in the evil path put you in such a low position that I see no reason why a character who knows what we know ingame would bother with it. You are treated as trash by Minthara all the way through, that is not an incentive to stick to her.