First of all. This game,, even though it might become great, is not the best thing since slized bread. It's a crpg. The third iteration in its series. People that haven't been interested in crpgs before have absoluly no reason becoming interested in this one. Not when the title has the number "3" in it. Some people might pick it up based on hype in media but not the majority. The majority of players bying this game will be people that has either fond memories of earlier Baldur's Gate games, likes D&D/fantasy crpgs or liked Larians previous releases and hopes this will have the same quality.
Without proper data you can't know for sure you are right. Honestly I'm not sure you are
I can ofc be wrong, I'm not all knowing. But from a logic point of view...why would someone that hasn't been interested in crpgs before, suddently pick this game up? With the game being titled 3 it tells the customer it's not the first iteration and therefor probably has a story that is continued from earlier games, a story they have missed. Being a crpg it will probably have some basic core mechanics that the customer haven't liked so far. Etc.
I personally don't like fps so I would never pick up a game tagged with fps, no matter how hyped it becomes. And I buy neither books, games or movie sequels without getting the the original first unless I can find confirmation that their stories are independent from each other.
SEX!!! HYPE!!! MARKETING!!! why does anyone? Baldur's Gate will be the sexy new game when it comes out, and between reviews and word of mouth, I'm sure lots of people will try it out. We live in an age where Yakuza 6 is burning up the charts, what does that tell you?
As I said, I might be wrong. But overall I strongly believe people, especially on forums like this, overhype the game to extremes. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the game will sell well. just look at the EA. But I don't think it will reach that far outside the common rpg market. And that's ok. It's not a niche market.
Believe it or not, but yesterday I discovered that a friend of mine, a person that spends atleast 8hours a day gaming, and has done so the last 17 years, had never even heard about Baldur's Gate. or neverwinter, or icewind dale, or any similar crpgs. Because he simply don't like that genre. But you can be damned sure he keeps tag on every single little news he can find about up coming games that does interest him.