I think there are differences between AAA games and sales. Other than the Witcher 3 and maybe the newer FFVII role-playing games still don't sell as well as shooters like Call of Duty. I think the three Mass Effect games sold a little more than 10 million copies for all 3 games. So anything close to 5 million would be a success I imagine.
It is confirmed that DA:I has sold over 10 million, and ME3 very close behind. Also confirmed that DA:O has sold over 5 million. And of these games only DA:I comes close to being a AAA game.
Originally Posted by Tuco
For context DOS 2 sales were estimated in the 100-200k range at best during EA and it ended up selling roughly a million in first month of release. And way more in the following ones.
Not accurate context at all. (A) With D:OS2 Larian was still an unknown quantity for many people, so it makes sense people would wait. Now this is no longer true. And (B) This being a D&D game makes it fundamentally different from D:OS2 in terms of people's responses. People already know D&D, and if you're a fan of D&D, and you've been dying for a D&D videogame for a long while, and you see "Baldur's Gate 3" in Steam or GOG, you're going to jump on it right away. If anything, it is all of the buyer's remorse that I am seeing in this forum and other forums that is most relevant here and interesting to me.
I think Larian would be lucky to get 5 million in sales. And this may be achievable PURELY because of the D&D and BG name recognition, which is to say not because the game is good or Larian's reputation but rather because a lot of gamers are desperate for a D&D/BG videogame no matter what. But for me, for a AAA game with a huge budget and close to a thousand people working on it, 5 million in sales would be rather paltry.
Your 5 million is probably a fairly good guess. However unlike you I would be satisfied with 5 millions sales. Well and we don't know. It could be 3 or 10 millions. My short real life story was the point that many people will buy at full release or later. Budget is not everything. Best example of that would be Starzitizen MMO roughly 350 million dollar budget and budget rise more and more while graphics are good the rest is not ok what they have done certainly not due to how many years in development and budget. My guess Squadron 42 single player part of Starzitizen maybe will be released within 10 years, but the full Starzitizen MMO after n decades or never. Crowdfunding began 2012 still continue fund getting and some kind of production before that it has alread began pre 2012 well so a decade of Starzitizen MMO development and they have very little results to show and also bugs. I have not paid for Starzitizen, but I know people who have paid that are very unhappy. Well and then there is Ashes of Creation MMO that has high budget and I maybe start playing it when full release perhaps in 2023-2024, but that MMO shows very positive signs in development. I played World of Warcraft MMO for over 3 years and many ex WOW MMO and Final Fantasy MMO developers have been hired for Ashes of Creation MMO development. I dont see why I could not play both BG3 and Ashes of Creation? BG3 offer sinple player or cooperative play to maximum 4 players. BG3 is only PvE and not PvP. You can play BG3 fully turn based and pause it any time. Movie like story effects,
Ashas of Creation. Sub fee monthly not one time buy. This is a MMO you can not pause combat and it is not turnbased combat. While there is lots of PvE in Ashes of Creation one of its strongest selling points is the PvP which will have lots of Pvp. You can not play AOC and believe you can completely avoid PvP in the long run. AOC will have many forms of PvP and also to such scale that has never done before 250 players vs 250 players and this on Unreal 4 graphics engine.
BG3 takes care of my PVE fun though can be played cooperative up to maximum 4 players or single player game. Ashes of Creation takes care of my fantasy PvP fun and it is MMO.
